The Dramatis Personae of the Autism Science Drama
Please start off with the introduction section.
I have now added a section on the most important persona, namely Paul Offit.
Others will be added when circumstances allow.

Tuesday 18 January 2011

Dr Andrew Wakefield

Dr Wakefield appears to have become the world's most famous (or infamous) scientist despite the wishes of a small many. There has of course been a heated exchange of allegations, on the one hand that he has committed fraud and other abuses, on the other hand that his accusers are the real deceivers. In this sort of situation it can be difficult for an outsider to tell fact from fiction. However, there is now more than sufficient self-incrimination in the words of those who have set about persecuting Dr Wakefield. On the basis of evidence freely available on the web, there is now sufficient proof that the pseudo-journalist Brian Deer, the health-fascist GMC, and the BMA's advert-filled trade rag (the BMJ) are devoid themselves of the credibility required to properly undermine the credibility of Dr Wakefield.

I have seen nothing that challenges a view that Dr Wakefield is an honest, honourable and courageous person. He's also built up an impressive knowledge of the autism literature in recent years, and speaks far more sense than certain others who are supposedly the "leading experts".

I do however think he greatly over-estimates some of the evidence concerning vaccines.

Firstly, his notion that a significant association of autism with MMR could be shown by the Japan study of Honda et al. This study involved a relatively small number of autistics and only nine years of time. I don't consider that it shows anything more important than some statistical turbulence relative to the general upward trend. And the fall in the last two years is just the normal underestimation due to delay of diagnosis.

Secondly, his citing of primate studies. But the vaccination schedule was speeded up by four times the human. And there's no reason to believe that mercury is metabolised four times faster in the primates. And we already have huge human epidemiological evidence of introduction and removal of vaccines in other countries.

Thirdly his citing the study that supposedly shows a "changepoint" at about 1988. In reality there is a smoothly-increasing curve already starting by 1980; as I explain at www.autismcauses.info.

Nevertheless, Dr Wakefield and myself are in concurrence that the question of vaccines as a small part of the causation of autism is still an open one, neither proved nor disproved.

His main errors are in not recognising the relevance of my 1993 theory paper, and of not seeing the centrality of dental amalgam in causation of the autism increase. But then almost the entire rest of the human race share with him in that error, so that's no big deal!

Papers replicating the findings of Wakefield 1998
(I have not read all the above; you have to judge their merits for yourself.)

Video of Dr Andrew Wakefield in his own words

A quasi-response video by Brian Deer.

Note how Mr Deer has set comments to disabled, so that it is impossible to post any challenges to (or verifications of) his assertions. Preventing such discussion is in my experience characteristic of those who are in the business of promoting falsehoods rather than truths.

New BMJ article:GMC case against Wakefield’s colleague was “superficial,” says appeal

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